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What Do Polls Say About Trump’s Guilty Verdict and His 2024 Campaign?

Opinion Polls: A new ABC News/Ipsos poll reveals that 50% of Americans believe the guilty verdict in former President Donald Trump’s hush money trial was justified.

Trump was found guilty of 34 counts related to falsifying business records concerning a payment made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election.

Despite the verdict, Trump’s favorability remains stable at 31%.

Meanwhile, 49% of Americans think Trump should end his 2024 presidential campaign following the conviction.

Perception of Political Motivation in the Trial

The ABC News/Ipsos poll indicates that 47% of Americans believe the charges against Trump were politically motivated, while 38% disagree.

Among Republicans, 83% think the trial was politically driven, compared to only 20% of Democrats.

Independents are divided, with 45% believing the trial was politically motivated.

Views on Trump’s Actions and Legality

A slight majority of Americans, 51%, think Trump intentionally did something illegal in the case.

In contrast, 12% believe he did something wrong but not intentionally, and 19% think he did not do anything wrong.

These opinions reflect the polarized nature of public sentiment regarding Trump’s legal battles.

Public Reaction to the Verdict Remains Steady

A CBS poll provides additional context, showing that views about Trump’s trial have not significantly changed post-verdict.

Just over half the country thought Trump was guilty before the verdict, and now just over half think the jury reached the right verdict and that the trial was fair.

Republicans largely believe Trump was treated unfairly, with many echoing the former president’s sentiments about jury bias and political motivation.

Calls for Trump to End Presidential Campaign

Nearly half of the surveyed Americans, 49%, believe Trump should suspend his 2024 presidential campaign due to the guilty verdict, according to the polls.

This sentiment is consistent with an April 2023 poll where 48% thought he should end his campaign following the indictment.

Among Democrats, 79% think he should drop out, while only 16% of Republicans share this view.

Independents are split, with 52% agreeing that Trump should end his candidacy.

Impact on Views of the Justice System

The trial has influenced public confidence in the U.S. justice system, according to the polls.

According to the CBS poll, most Democrats feel more confident in the justice system following the verdict, while three-quarters of Republicans report feeling less confident.

These contrasting views highlight the partisan divide in perceptions of fairness and justice.

Reactions to the Verdict Along Partisan Lines

Public reaction to the verdict shows a clear partisan split, the polls show.

While 83% of Democrats believe the verdict was correct, only 16% of Republicans agree.

Similarly, 79% of Democrats think Trump should end his campaign, whereas the same percentage of Republicans believe he should continue.

Among Independents, 52% support the verdict and think Trump should end his campaign.

The Role of Independent and Double-Hater Voters

With both Trump and President Joe Biden holding low favorability ratings, the upcoming election might hinge on independent voters, particularly those who dislike both candidates, often referred to as double-haters.

Among Independents, 52% agree with the verdict and think Trump should end his campaign.

Among double-haters, these figures rise to 65% and 67%, respectively, the polls show.

Perceptions of Crime Severity and Punishment

The CBS poll highlights that most Republicans do not believe Trump was convicted of serious crimes, with six in 10 saying the crimes are “not at all serious.”

There is also a partisan divide on what punishment fits the crime, with most Americans not supporting prison time for Trump’s conviction.

What the Polls suggest

The combined results from the ABC News/Ipsos and CBS polls reflect a nation divided on the issue of Trump’s guilty verdict.

Public opinion is heavily influenced by partisan perspectives, with significant differences in how Democrats, Republicans, and Independents view the trial and its political implications.

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, these divisions are likely to play a crucial role in shaping the political landscape.

Also Read: Could These Looming Trials Stop Trump’s 2024 Run?

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