Trump Edges Out Harris in Latest Major National Poll: Momentum Shift Before Crucial 10 September Debate

For the first time in weeks, former President Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in a major national poll, signaling a potential shift in momentum as the two prepare to face off in their first debate.

According to a New York Times/Siena College poll, Trump leads Harris 48% to 47% among likely voters nationally, a razor-thin margin that mirrors similar trends from late July.

Poll Mirrors Previous Trends

This latest poll marks a continuation of the back-and-forth dynamic between Trump and Harris, with the former president regaining ground after trailing Harris in August.

Trump’s resurgence comes despite the fact that 70% of voters—and 37% of his own supporters—reported finding some of his statements offensive.

Harris had surged in the polls after President Biden exited the race, briefly taking the lead in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of national polls.

However, Trump’s renewed lead in this poll suggests a tighter race than anticipated, with battleground states remaining largely up for grabs.

Issue Breakdown: Economy, Abortion, and More

The poll also revealed where voters stand on key issues. On abortion, voters trust Harris more than Trump by a margin of 54% to 49%.

When it comes to democracy, Harris maintains a 50% to 45% lead. However, Trump is seen as more trustworthy on the economy (55% to 42%) and immigration (53% to 43%).

The top issues for voters in this poll were the economy (21%), abortion (14%), immigration (12%), inflation and the cost of living (7%), and democracy (7%).

Enthusiasm Gap and Perception of Change

The poll also highlighted a slight enthusiasm gap, with Democrats showing a lead over Republicans in terms of voter excitement—91% to 85%.

Despite this, a significant 56% of respondents indicated that they do not believe Harris represents a change from the Biden administration.

Only 25% said she represents major change, and 15% viewed her as a minor change candidate.

In contrast, 51% of respondents felt that Trump represents major change, with another 10% seeing him as a minor change and 35% believing he would bring more of the same.

Political strategists, including James Carville, have pointed out that the candidate who can best position themselves as a changemaker will likely have the upper hand.

Carville recently suggested that Harris needs to publicly distance herself from Biden on major policies to solidify her position.

Favorability Ratings and Debate Implications

Trump’s favorability ratings have slightly dipped, with 46% of voters viewing him favorably, down from 48% in July.

Conversely, Harris’ favorability lags behind Trump’s, with 45% of voters viewing her favorably and 50% unfavorably.

Among those who viewed her unfavorably, 37% expressed very unfavorable views.

Polling analyst Nate Silver weighed in on the poll results, noting on X (formerly Twitter) that while the New York Times/Siena College poll is highly rated, the upcoming debate could significantly alter the trajectory of the race.

Silver’s 2024 election forecast currently gives Trump higher odds of winning the Electoral College, although Harris is still favored to win the popular vote.

The Road Ahead: A Crucial Debate

With about eight weeks remaining until the November 5 election, the upcoming debate hosted by ABC News in Philadelphia could prove pivotal in what is shaping up to be a tossup race.

This debate will mark the first time Trump and Harris will meet face-to-face on the national stage.

The New York Times/Siena College poll sampled 1,695 voters from September 3–6, with a margin of error of ±2.8 percentage points.

Also Read: Missouri Reports First U.S. H5 Bird Flu Case Without Known Exposure to Sick Animals