Swing States Take Center Stage in 2024 Race: Pennsylvania and Georgia Lead the Presidential Battle

With just weeks to go until Election Day, the 2024 presidential campaign is focused intensely on six key swing states that could decide the outcome of the race.

According to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slight edge over former President Donald Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan. Trump, however, leads in Arizona.

The competition is extremely tight in the swing states of Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, the latter being a crucial state with a large number of electoral votes up for grabs.

Voter Indecision Could Sway the Outcome in Swing States

Across all six states, approximately 15% of likely voters remain undecided, which leaves a significant portion of the electorate still up for grabs.

As campaign activities ramp up in the final weeks, these undecided voters could be key to swinging the election either way.

In Wisconsin, Harris leads with 50% of likely voters compared to Trump’s 44%. In Michigan, Harris holds 48% compared to Trump’s 43%.

Trump, on the other hand, leads in Arizona with 49% to Harris’ 44%.

In Georgia and Nevada, Harris holds a slim advantage, with 48% supporting her and 47% backing Trump. In Pennsylvania, the race is deadlocked, with both candidates at 47%.

These polls, taken after the Democratic National Convention in August, reflect the views of likely voters determined by a combination of past voting behavior and current intentions.

The findings suggest that Pennsylvania and Georgia could be central to each candidate’s path to the White House.

Pathways to the Presidency

If Harris can hold on to Biden’s 2020 wins outside of these six swing states and secure victories in Wisconsin and Michigan, a win in Pennsylvania would be crucial, plus one more electoral vote from another state.

This combination would be enough to win the presidency.

For Trump, maintaining his 2020 win in North Carolina, combined with victories in other swing states of Georgia and Pennsylvania, would also give him a clear path to the White House, regardless of the outcomes in Wisconsin, Michigan, or Nevada.

Harris’ nomination as the Democratic Party’s candidate has shifted the dynamics of the race slightly.

While economic issues remain a top concern for voters, Harris trails Trump on trust to handle the economy by smaller margins than Biden did earlier in the campaign.

On average, Trump is more trusted on the economy by 8 points, a significant reduction from the 20-point advantage he held over Biden in previous polls.

Swing State Voters Divided on Key Issues

Economic issues remain the dominant concern for voters across these key swing states, with 39% citing the economy as their top issue.

Protecting democracy comes in second, with an average of 25% of likely voters choosing it as their primary concern.

Harris has an advantage when it comes to abortion and reproductive rights, particularly among women in these states, where she leads by an average of 27 percentage points on the issue.

Voters in these swing states tend to see Trump as having clearer policy plans to solve the country’s problems, though Harris is seen as having more mainstream views.

Around half of voters in each state believe that Trump’s views are too extreme, with about 4 in 10 expressing the same sentiment about Harris.

Independent Voters Could Be Key

Independent voters are showing a high degree of indecision, with roughly a quarter across these swing states saying they could still change their minds.

This group is also more likely to feel that neither candidate will unite the country, lacks clear policy plans, and does not care about “people like them.”

How these independents ultimately vote could prove decisive in a close election.

Harris is tied to an unpopular White House, as Biden’s approval rating remains in negative territory in all six swing states, ranging around 40%.

Despite this, Harris still holds 16% support among likely voters who disapprove of Biden’s job performance, a higher share than former Vice President Al Gore managed when he ran for president in 2000.

Focus on Georgia and Pennsylvania

Georgia and Pennsylvania are especially crucial swing states for both campaigns. In Georgia, Harris enjoys significant support from Black voters, securing 85% of their vote, although Black voter motivation appears to be lower than among White voters.

A similar situation is found in Pennsylvania, where Harris garners 84% support from Black voters but faces lower voter motivation in this demographic compared to White voters.

Both states show significant gender gaps, with Harris leading among female voters and Trump dominating among male voters.

Harris also leads among younger voters in both states, particularly those under 35, a key demographic that helped propel Biden to victory in 2020.

Tight Races in Arizona and Nevada

In Arizona, Trump holds a narrow lead, while in Nevada, the race remains too close to call.

Harris struggles in Arizona among Latino voters, younger voters, and White voters with college degrees, but fares better in Nevada, where she leads among Latino voters and White college-educated voters.

Both swing states feature close down-ballot races, particularly in the Senate, where Democrats are fighting to maintain their hold.

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